Can AI Let You Jump SOC Maturity Levels? (Spoiler: Only the Boring Half)
Back in my analyst days, I built maturity models for a SOC (2018), a SIEM (2018), vulnerability management (2017) and threat intel (201?). Later, just for fun, I cooked up a simple SOAR adoption maturity model (2022). All of them were vaguely CMM-shaped: you start ad hoc, you get defined, you get measured, you get optimizing, magic! The ordering was not decorative. Each level existed because the one below it produced something the next level needed. Largely, you cannot jump levels, and if you do jump, you land in clownΒ realm.

2026, now the pitch has changed. With AI (agentic, of course!), the story goes, a low maturity SOC can leap to maturity Level 3 or 4 βbecause AIβ. No slog through the βdefined processβ desert, no βorganicβ growth through stages. Buy the agents, skip theΒ years!
If you attended my RSA 2026 peer session, you saw the buyer-side version of this: βAI in a SOC sounds great, we will just wait for our SIEM/SOAR vendor or MDR to give it to us.β Same assumption, that the new version of the tool carries the maturity boost with it. Sadly, in reality AI can generate the paperwork of a mature SOC in an afternoon. It cannot give you the institutional memory to know what your own systems actuallyΒ do.
Ten years ago, in βJumping Security Maturity Failβ, I endorsed a readerβs line that you can jump technologies, but you canβt jump maturity. Iβd like to re-examine that in the age of agents. Because some of it has changed. Just not the part vendors are selling. Think of this as βJumping Security Maturity Fail, Part 2. 10 YearsΒ Later.β
Where this postΒ sits
This is a bridge between two things Iβve been writing about. On one side, the AI-ready SOC pillars and how to plan the journey to them. On the other, the βStop Building a 2003 SOC with AIβ series (Part 2, Part 3), which argues the target SOC in 2026 should look nothing like the 2003 one (more on βSOC 2026β from scratch in a fewΒ daysβ¦)
The question in between: if the destination has changed, does the path still have mandatory stops? That is what βjumping maturityβ is reallyΒ asking.
The claim, restated so it can beΒ tested
βAI lets you skip maturity stagesβ quietly conflates two different things:
- Stage outputsβββthe artifacts a mature SOC has: playbooks, parsers, detections, runbooks, dashboards, workflows for various humans, skill profiles for humans to hire,Β etc
- Stage prerequisitesβββthe organizational state a mature SOC is in: it knows its environment, owns its processes, trusts its data, has a working feedbackΒ loop.
AI can generate the outputs of Level 3 for a Level 1 SOC in an afternoon. You can always say βadd automationβ, βmake this playbook better fasterβ, βmore AIβ¦add even more AIβ¦MOAR AAAIII!!!β
Still, it cannot generate the organizational prerequisites, because those are not documents. They are things an organization has learned about itself by operating. Once you split the journey along that line, the βjumpβ question mostly answersΒ itself.
Typical SOC Maturity Journey (Woefully Oversimplified)
- Level 1βββAd hoc. Some logs, some alerts, heroics. βNobody knows what server4 does, but Joanna might, letβs callΒ her.β
- Level 2βββDefined. SIEM with intentional use cases (hopefully, output-driven, not βwhat data do we have? Letβs shove it in!β), documented triage and (some) IR runbooks, named owners (for some things, some are even the right ownersβ¦), basicΒ metrics.
- Level 3βββManaged. SOAR playbooks beyond βbabyβs first phishing playbookβ, some threat-informed detection, log source health monitoring (logs volume drop? alert!), MTTx that is tracked and acted on (sometimes).
- Level 4β5βββOptimizing. Detection engineering as a discipline (the DE series), a continuous detection / continuous response loop, hunting that feeds detection, an improvement culture. This sets you on a path to ASO endΒ state.
So, letβs get βan AI jumpropeβ and startΒ jumping!
Part A: What AI genuinely lets youΒ jump
These are the labor-intensive artifacts of each levelβββthe things that took quarters to write, not the things that took years toΒ learn.
- Runbook and playbook authoring. Fifty credible playbooks, one afternoon. The writing effort that used to gate Level 2β3 is gone. This one you can jump. There are caveats, like that some of the playbooks will suck, but for many teams fixing a 80% playbook is not 20% faster than making one from scratch, but essentially 5X fasterβ¦ SOC process docs, playbooks, etc is where jumping isΒ legit.
- Parsers and normalization. Onboarding long-tail log sources was a classic Level 2 grind. Largely shortcut-able now (with lots of caveats; for tricky log sources the βfully machinedβ parser will suck). You can jump here, but you may trip andΒ fall.
- Baseline detection content. βReasonable coverage of common threats that matter to youβ no longer requires a detection engineering team to bootstrap. You can βmachineβ some custom detection quick, and some will even work. Keep in mind, here you can jump but not very far: you wonβt arrive on βfull autoβ process for turning intel into detections that work well forΒ you.
- Tier 1 triage as a stage. Here is the one real skip: the stage where you staff a Tier 1 can be omitted entirely if enrichment and investigation are agentic from day one. You shouldnβt build the 2003 shape at allβββtriage must die. This is kinda a side-jump from βclassic SOCβ to modern D&R function, SOCless (if you wish); some aspect thereof. This wonβt make you Google or Netflix if you can barely spellΒ βMDR.β
- Documenting existing processes. AI can watch tickets and chat and reverse-engineer what people actually do. This shortcuts the βwrite down what we doβ part of Level 2. It does not shortcut the βdecide what we should doβ part. This isΒ magical!
- Metrics plumbing. Dashboards, reporting, the presentation layer of Level 3. (Which metrics matter is a separate, non-jumpable questionβββsee the ASO metricsΒ piece.)
- Cross-SOC knowledge transfer. Mature-SOC practice encoded in models and skills means you donβt reinvent detection hygiene from scratch. This jump can get your from βalmost nothingβ to βpretty damn goodβΒ , and it probably wonβt suck. JumpΒ away!
- Ordering between tracks. The SOAR model already noted that dimensions get mixed up across organizations but each dimension matures in order. AI makes this more true: you can advance the data, detection and response tracks in parallel rather than serially.
So yesβββAI compresses the time within a stage, and lets you run some stages in parallel. It also allows some real jumps (yay, those marketing people didnβt lieβ¦ this time). That is real, and it is notΒ nothing.
Howeverβ¦
Part B: What must be followed in sequence, AI orΒ not
These are states the organization has to reach. No artifact substitutes for them. Worse, AI amplifies whatever state you are inβββmature or clown-grade. If you have read the AI-ready SOC pillars, you will notice this list is the pillars in disguise. That is not a coincidence; readiness and maturity are the same thing viewed from twoΒ angles.
- Environmental knowledge. Asset context, identity context, ownership. AI cannot tell you what server4 does; it can only ask Joanna faster. If your teams donβt know who owns what, neither will your agents (pillar #2). This is the single hardest prerequisite and it precedes everything else. Part 3 of the 2003 SOC series is essentially a whole post on why local context is the thing agents canβt bring with them. Yes, some fun startups are working on this, so maybe my 2027 assessment willΒ change!
- Data foundations before analytics. Collect β trust β detect β automate, in that order (pillar #1, still my favorite). An agent investigating over gappy, untrusted telemetry produces confident nonsense at scale. Low awareness of removed or failed log sources was already a top failure mode in Detection Engineering and SOC Scalability Challenges in 2023; with agents on top it gets worse, not better. And federated SIEM does not exempt you: federation is a topology choice, not a data-quality shortcut.
- Process definition before process automation. SOAR proved this and agentic AI is re-proving it. Automating an undefined process gives you an undefined process that runs faster, crazier, with more stochastic chaos (fun!). And, yes, an AI-drafted playbook still needs a human who can say βno, thatβs not how we do containment hereββββwhich requires someone who knows how you do containmentβ¦ Also, here agents may enable speed-up, but not truly a jump over thisΒ stage.
- Trust calibration. βAI suggestsβ β βAI acts with approvalβ β βAI acts, humans audit.β This is inherently sequential because trust is earned from an observed track record in your environment. Vendors cannot ship trust! This is our ASOβs CD/CR applied to the agent itself, and it is also why the βhumanless SOCβ crowd keeps soiling their pants: they skip the calibration stage and call it aΒ feature.
- Ownership and accountability. Someone owns detection quality; someone owns response outcomes. Low maturity SOCs lack this. AI does not create owners. Here you jumpβββyouΒ die.
- Feedback loops. The actual magic of ASO sparkles here: incidents feed tuning, false positives feed detection, hunting feeds detection. AI can run the loop faster, but the loop must exist and be wired to real outcomes. In the Deloitte/Google βconsistency and creativityβ paper we argued you build consistency through the lower levels first, then let creativity loose inside processes that already exist. Substitute βagentsβ for βcreativityβ and it reads as if written forΒ 2026.
- Organizational stamina. Budget, executive sponsorship, staff retention, tolerance for change, βchange budget. Every failed SOAR program died here, not on technology. The ghost of SOAR comes back with vengeance here. Agents do not fix this one. AtΒ all.
Waitβββdidnβt I say you canβt cross a chasm in two smallΒ jumps?
Yes I did. In Baby ASO and its sequel I argued that incremental improvement of a β1980s-NOC-DNAβ SOC mostly fails, that the fix is radical, and that simply buying modern tools changes nothing if people and process stay put. In, our Deloitte/Google βEvolution or Optimizationβ, we made the same point with a decisionΒ matrix.
So am I now saying βgo slow, climb every rungβ? Who wants this inΒ 2026?
No. These are two different questions, and conflating them is exactly how βAI lets you jump maturityβ getsΒ sold.
- Which ladder? Transformation (ASO, engineering-led D&R, the 2003-SOC-must-die argument) is about changing the shape of the SOC. It is a different ladder, not a shortcut up the old one. You absolutely should choose the new ladder, and you should do it in one decisive move rather than two timid ones. Transformation is not incremental.
- Can you skip rungs? Whichever ladder you pick, the learning-cost prerequisites in Part B are the rungs. The new ladder has fewer rungs (no Tier 1 stage, no swivel-chair triage stage), which is the genuine good news. But the rungs it keepsβββknow your environment, trust your data, own your processes, earn trust in automationβββare the same ones, and they are still climbed in order. Remember our βAI in security can be magical, but it isnβt magic; Itβs a marathon of focused engineeringβ? This isΒ true!
Put differently: βcross the chasm in one jumpβ means commit to the transformation and dump the incrementalism/optimizing what you have. This worksΒ IRL.
It does not mean the far side of the chasm has no ground rules. AI shortens the new ladderβββit does not let you levitate over any chasm obstacle.
The AI-specific failure mode: skipped stages become invisible
The old cargo-cult SOCβββa 1-out-of-5 low maturity SOC copying βninja movesβ from a 6-out-of-5, as I described in Clown-grade SOCsβββat least failed visibly, funnily and embarrassingly. Get the popcorn! Hunting before you do logging was obviously silly.
The new one is worse. AI papers over the gap with slop. You cannot cross the chasm if you put some slop over it. Agents produce plausible investigations, tickets close, MTTR looks wonderful, and nobody notices that the environment context was hallucinated and the βcontainmentβ hit the wrong host. Skipped maturity used to fail loudly. Now it failsΒ quietly.
A usable test: jump vs.Β borrow
For any element of any stage, ask one question: does this exist because someone had to spend time, or because someone had to learn something aboutΒ us?
- Time-cost elements are jumpable. AI doesΒ them.
- Learning-cost elements are not. AI can make you learn faster, but you still have toΒ learn.
Corollary for vendor conversations, in the spirit of the RSA 2026 βshow me the numbersβ advice: when someone claims a stage skip, ask which bucket their claim fallsΒ in.
Most β1β3 with AIβ pitches are quietly selling the artifacts of Level 3 to a Level 1 organization, and then blaming βprocess gapsβ or vaguely point at βcustomer immaturityβ (right?) when itΒ fails.
So, can youΒ jump?
You can jump the artifacts. You can run tracks in parallel and get through each level in months instead of years. You canβββand, perhaps, shouldβββpick the transformation ladder instead of the optimization one. That is a genuinely better deal than the one we had inΒ 2016.
But you cannot jump knowing your environment, owning your processes, trusting your data, or earning trust in your automation. Those are the maturity. The rest was always just the paperworkβ¦
Related posts
- Jumping Security Maturity Fail (2016)βββthe original βcanβt jump maturityβ argument
- A Simple SOAR Adoption Maturity ModelΒ (2022)
- Beware: Clown-grade SOCs Still AboundΒ (2019)
- Autonomic Security Operationsβββ10X Transformation of the SOC (2021) and ASO principles
- Baby ASO (2024) and The Return of the Baby ASO: Why SOCs Still Suck?Β (2025)
- Future of the SOC papers: Process Consistency and Creativity (3), Evolution or Optimization (4), Transform the HowΒ (5)
- WTH is Modern SOC, Part 1Β (2023)
- Simple to Ask: Is Your SOC AI Ready? (2025) and Beyond βIs Your SOC AI Ready?β Plan the Journey!Β (2026)
- Stop Building a 2003 SOC with AI: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3Β (2026)
- A Brief Guide for Dealing with βHumanless SOCβ IdiotsΒ (2025)
- Detection Engineering and SOC Scalability Challenges (Part 2) (2023, with AmineΒ Besson)
- The Ancient Art of SIEM: Why 2003 Problems Look So Familiar in 2026Β (2026)
- RSA 2026: Agentic Future, Analog Fundamentals (2026)
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