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Cybercrime at Machine Speed: Key Takeaways from Flashpoint’s 2026 Midyear Threat Intelligence Briefing

Threat actors are no longer just using automation to execute tasks, they are leveraging prepackaged, safeguard-free AI, weaponizing stolen session data, and directly targeting defenders’ security stacks.

In our latest webinar, Flashpoint Vice President of Intelligence, Ian Gray, briefed security leaders on the evolving threat environment, providing critical insights from the Flashpoint Global Threat Intelligence Report (GTIR): 2026 Midyear Edition.

The threat landscape has developed at a striking pace with Flashpoint tracking over 22 million illicit AI discussions, 7.4 million compromised hosts yielding 1.7 billion stolen credentials, and over 21,600 disclosed vulnerabilities in just six months. Beyond these staggering numbers, the on-demand session detailed something even more alarming: a fundamental shift in adversary operational tradecraft.

Here are the five critical shifts every cyber threat intelligence (CTI), Vulnerability Management, and SOC team needs to know.

The Death of Signal: Threat Actors are Shifting to “Private AI”

The public discussion surrounding criminal artificial intelligence (AI) has reached a critical inflection point. Early in the AI boom, Flashpoint observed threat actors collaboratively experiment across underground forums, jailbreaking commercial frontier models or advertising surface-level tools like WormGPT and DarkGPT.

Today, adversaries are shifting from public forums to running fine-tuned, open-source models locally on private servers, which greatly hampers traditional signature-based detection. Flashpoint analysts are now seeing attackers generate unique, highly tailored malware variants, flawless phishing lures, and custom exploit scripts at extremely low costs—completely offline and shielded from public monitoring.

“A few months ago, a lot of this was collaborative… public outsourcing. Now what we’re seeing is scarier: pre-packaged cybercrime models run locally on private infrastructure. Malicious code, exploit scripts, and targeted phishing are all being generated inside closed environments.”

Ian Gray, VP of Intelligence, Flashpoint

Weaponizing the Defender’s Own Tooling

Another eye-opening tactical insight shared during the session was how threat actors are repurposing defender infrastructure for automated initial access and extortion. In the webinar, we pointed to recent campaigns where adversaries specifically targeted misconfigurations and zero-day vulnerabilities inside open-source vulnerability scanners, secrets-detection tools, Kubernetes clusters, and Infrastructure-as-Code(IaC) environments.

What this means for defenders is that the attack surface is no longer bounded by traditional enterprise network boundaries: it extends directly into CI/CD pipelines, security orchestration tooling, and third-party SaaS integrations. Security teams are finding themselves in a race against attackers who use automated scanning scripts to weaponize vulnerabilities in the security tools themselves.

The Global Infostealer Threat and Identity-First Attacks

Flashpoint tracked 7.4 million hosts compromised by infostealers in H1 2026—a 27% increase period-over-period—harvesting 1.7 billion credentials and identity information.

While the top infostealer strains remain familiar, law enforcement operations have created vacuums that competitors rapidly fill.

Threat actors are leveraging drive-by downloads, watering holes, and pirated software packages to plant stealers. Once a machine is compromised, the logs capture corporate SSO credentials, active browser cookies, VPN keys, and SaaS session tokens. This enables adversaries to simply log in without having to leverage complex technical exploits.

The Structural Failure of CVE/NVD and the Importance of KEV

The Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures (CVE) and National Vulnerability Database (NVD) have failed to keep pace with the velocity of AI-assisted vulnerability discovery. As such, vulnerability management teams are facing significant operational delays.

Metric	Flashpoint GTIR Midyear H1 2026 Data	Operational Impact
Total Disclosures	21,667	Remediation volume exceeds defender bandwidth.
Exploit Availability	19% (4,015 CVEs)	Functional code is ready before patches are deployed.
Public Catalog Lag	Growing Backlog (NVD/KEV)	Delay in official scoring leaves teams blind to active risk.

Therefore, waiting for NVD enrichment before prioritizing a patch is a dangerous strategy. To compensate, security teams require Vulnerability Intelligence (VI) that provides primary-source confirmation of weaponization, exploit availability, and actionable mitigation guidance long before public databases update.

Ransomware Evolution: From Encryption to Cloud Extortion

Ransomware-as-a-Service (RaaS) activity surged by 45% period-over-period, reaching 6,256 verified victim postings on data leak sites. However, total on-chain payout revenue dropped by 8% to $820 million, with victim pay-rates hitting a record low of 28%.

Faced with declining payouts and resilient enterprise backups, extortion syndicates are adapting. Rather than relying exclusively on technical file-encrypting malware, groups are executing pure data extortion campaigns—frequently targeting cloud platforms or extracting data through third-party vendor access.

Protect Your Organization Using Flashpoint

Defending against machine-speed attacks requires moving beyond reactive, post-incident telemetry. Flashpoint arms security, CTI, and vulnerability management teams with the primary-source intelligence required to preempt adversary operations:

• Unrivaled Deep & Dark Web Visibility: Flashpoint’s Primary Source Collection actively monitors closed criminal communities, illicit Telegram channels, and private forums, giving you early warning when threat actors build custom AI toolkits or trade credentials targeting your organization.
• Comprehensive Vulnerability Intelligence (VI): Flashpoint tracks zero-days and vulnerability disclosures independently, delivering immediate exploit availability data and threat-informed prioritization so you patch what actually matters.
• Continuous Compromised Credential Monitoring: Instantly surface exposed enterprise credentials, active session tokens, and stealer logs tied to your domain or third-party supply chain before they lead to an account takeover (ATO).

Request a demo, or watch the full on-demand webinar to explore the data shaping today’s risk landscape.

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Navigating AI-Driven Cyber Threats: Insights from Flashpoint’s 2026 GTIR Midyear Edition

In this post, we preview the critical findings of Flashpoint’s Global Threat Intelligence Report: 2026 Midyear Edition.

In the first half of 2026, the global threat landscape reached a clear operational inflection point: threat operations have fundamentally transitioned from human-led campaigns to machine-speed, AI-driven exploitation. As threat actors gain commoditized access to open-source AI technologies and actively deploy automated, safeguard-free tooling locally on private infrastructure, organizations face an accelerating hybrid risk environment.

Flashpoint’s Global Threat Intelligence Report: 2026 Midyear Edition

The Flashpoint Global Threat Intelligence Report: 2026 Midyear Edition anchors security leaders—from threat intelligence, vulnerability management, to executive leadership—in the data required to navigate this evolving threat landscape. Covering the period from January 1 to June 30, 2026, the report delivers timely insights backed by Flashpoint’s proprietary primary-source collection from over 3.9 petabytes of continuously monitored illicit sources.

Our midyear findings reveal several key metrics that highlight the speed and scale of the H1 2026 threat landscape:

• 22M+ threat actor posts discussed, shared, or advertised artificial intelligence toolkits for criminal deployment.
• 1.7B credentials and identity data points extracted across more than 7.4M unique compromised hosts globally.
• Nearly one-in-five (19%) of all vulnerability disclosures dropped with ready-made, functional exploit code.
• 45% period-over-period surge in Ransomware-as-a-Service (RaaS), with total victim volume reaching 6,256 even as victim payout rates dropped to a historic low of 28%.

Download the Flashpoint Global Threat Intelligence Report: 2026 Midyear Edition to gain:

1. A Clear Understanding of the Convergence Between AI and Cyber Threats
   From generating flawless phishing campaigns to automating vulnerability scanning and code obfuscation, discover how adversaries are optimizing for speed and cost-efficiency — utilizing AI as a force multiplier in their various illicit campaigns.
2. A Comprehensive Top-Down View of the Evolving Threat Landscape
   Gain full visibility of the threat landscape with Flashpoint’s primary-source collections and real-time threat intelligence.
3. Strategies for Proactive Defense and Risk Mitigation
   Move your organization beyond reactive incident response by leveraging Flashpoint’s comprehensive threat intelligence. Gain the foresight needed to strengthen defenses and optimize your security posture.

“AI is compressing the time between opportunity and exploitation. Capabilities that once took significant expertise, coordination, and time to develop are becoming faster to build, easier to scale, and harder to detect. Security teams are facing an adversary ecosystem that can use AI to iterate at unprecedented speed — the only way to keep pace is with primary-source intelligence that surfaces adversary behavior before attacks unfold.”

Josh Lefkowitz, Flashpoint Co-Founder & CEO

The Four Driving Themes Shaping the 2026 Threat Landscape

Artificial Intelligence (AI) Threats

During the first half of 2026, Flashpoint captured over 22M illicit posts discussing or advertising AI for criminal-related activities. By stripping ethical safeguards, custom malicious LLMs allow unsophisticated threat actors to automate complex phases of the attack lifecycle, including target profiling, malware evasion script creation, and zero-day exploit generation.

Information-Stealing Malware Threats

Infostealer malware harvested 1.7 billion credentials across 7.4 million compromised systems in H1 2026 alone, turning digital identity into the main entry point for enterprise intrusions.

Vulnerability Intelligence and Patching Management

19% (4,015) of all H1 2026 vulnerability disclosures arrived with ready-made exploit code. Adversaries deploy automated replication scripts almost immediately upon disclosure, eliminating manual remediation windows.

Ransomware Operations, Multi-Extortion Cartels, and Financial Risk

Despite a 45% surge in victim volume (6,256 overall), total on-chain revenue fell by 8% to $820M. Improved enterprise backups and incident response have driven payout rates down to 28%, prompting syndicates to demand larger sums from paying victims.

Proactive Security in 2026 and Beyond

The data shows that traditional enterprise security organizations are struggling to keep pace with modern threat cycles that are accelerated by illicit uses of AI. This continued convergence of AI engines and initial access vectors have further compressed attack timelines, making it nearly impossible for security teams to defend against them—especially if they are limited by traditional approaches to threat intelligence.

Equipping your team with primary-source threat intelligence is critical for protecting critical assets in 2026. Download the Flashpoint Global Threat Intelligence Report: 2026 Midyear Edition to gain the visibility and strategic clarity required to defend your organization.

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Qakbot Takedown: A Brief Victory in the Fight Against Resilient Malware

Prior botnet takedowns like Emotet and TrickBot have shown that sophisticated malware operations, like Qakbot, can often rebuild infrastructure and return from disruptions in new forms

Qakbot takedown and seizure

A global law enforcement operation has successfully disrupted the infrastructure of the Qakbot botnet, striking a major—though likely temporary—blow to a dominant player in the cybercriminal underground supply chain. 

Qakbot, familiarly Qbot, has been a major cyber threat since 2007, infecting victims’ computers to steal financial information and distribute additional malware payloads like ransomware. As a result of the takedown, more than 700,000 infected devices worldwide were identified and cleaned of the malware. The DOJ also announced the seizure of $8.6M in cryptocurrency in illicit profits.

While there is no doubt that the Qakbot takedown is a major win in the fight against cybercrime, it may only provide short-term relief in the fight against a notoriously resilient cybercriminal ecosystem.

‘Swiss Army knife’

A Swiss Army knife of cybercrime tools, Qakbot was a complex malware that opened remote access to victims’ systems, stole credentials and financial information, and downloaded additional malware payloads. Its modular architecture enabled frequent updates to add new capabilities over its 15+ years of operation.

“The collaborative endeavors of these authoritative bodies exemplify the power of a comprehensive, multi-agency approach, designed to maximize its impact..”

Ian Gray, VP Of Intelligence

Qakbot has been a versatile workhorse for cybercriminals. Its banking trojan functionality has been used to pilfer payment information and intercept financial transactions. As a loader, it distributed ransomware such as ProLock to extort victims.

Qakbot has also powered large-scale spam email campaigns and brute force attacks. Its worm-like spreading kept it entrenched in infected networks. By providing the backdoor access and distribution channel for other malware, Qakbot played a key supporting role in the cybercrime ecosystem. Botnets like Emotet and TrickBot operated similarly, loading additional threats onto compromised systems. These jack-of-all-trades botnets have proven lucrative for their criminal operators.

A history of temporary relief

Prior botnet takedowns like Emotet and TrickBot have shown that sophisticated malware operations can often rebuild infrastructure and return from disruptions in new forms.

In the case of Emotet, the botnet came back online in 2022 using new techniques after its infrastructure was dismantled in 2021. TrickBot also persisted despite takedown attempts and remains an active threat. This resiliency highlights the challenges law enforcement faces in permanently eliminating cyber threats.

While takedowns temporarily degrade capabilities, dedicated cybercriminal groups adapt to avoid further disruption. New malware families also inevitably emerge to fill the gaps left by larger takedowns. For example, BazarLoader and ZLoader rose to prominence as loader malware after the Emotet takedown.

Yet despite their disruptions, resilient botnets often return and new ones emerge. After prior actions against Emotet and TrickBot, the lingering demand in underground markets brought them back in adapted new forms. Bots remain attractive tools for cybercriminals thanks to their versatility, automation, and money generating potential.

While Qakbot’s infrastructure was disrupted, its operators may attempt to rebuild or evolve their techniques. Sustained pressure on botnet financial flows, developer communities, and other aspects of the cybercrime supply chain is needed to deter future attacks. For now, the coordinated Qakbot takedown bought time and degraded the capabilities of a dominant cybercrime player.

The fight against cybercrime must be persistent and comprehensive

The Qakbot takedown was effectively coordinated among global governments, including France, Germany, Latvia, Romania, the Netherlands, the UK, and the US, as well as the private sector. The collaborative endeavors of these authoritative bodies exemplify the power of a comprehensive, multi-agency approach, designed to maximize its impact.

Law enforcement and the private sector should to continue coordinating takedowns while also focusing on detecting new malware variants early, disrupting communication channels, and following the money trails of criminal enterprises.

Cyber hygiene and threat awareness across organizations must also improve to reduce vulnerability to malware infections, including loaders and trojans that distribute threats like Qakbot. Technical controls like endpoint detection, network monitoring, and patching are also key.

Ultimately, defeating cybercrime requires comprehensive strategy across law enforcement operations, cybersecurity practices, and international collaboration. The Qakbot takedown represents meaningful progress, but the world must remain vigilant against an adaptable threat landscape.

Get Flashpoint on your side

Flashpoint Ignite enables organizations to proactively identify and mitigate cyber and physical risk that could imperil people, places, and assets. To unlock the power of great threat intelligence, get started with a free Flashpoint trial.

Request a demo today.

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How to Combat Check Fraud: Leveraging Intelligence to Prevent Financial Loss

Criminals increasingly steal checks and sell them on illicit online marketplaces, where check fraud-related services are common. Intelligence is helping the financial sector fight back

Stolen checks and the impact of Covid-19

Checks are one of the most vulnerable legacy payment methods. Check fraud can actively affect the bottom lines (and reputations) of banks, financial services organizations, government entities, and many other organizations that utilize checks. According to the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), fraud—including check fraud—is “the largest source of illicit proceeds in the US” as well as “one of the most significant money laundering threats to the United States.” 

Targeting the mail

Criminals target the US mail system to steal a variety of checks. In fact, there is a nationwide surge in check fraud schemes targeting the US mail and shipping system, as threat actors continue to steal, alter, and sell checks through illicit means and channels. 

This includes personal checks and tax refund checks to government or government assistance-related checks (Social Security payments, e.g.). Business checks are also a primary target because they are often written for larger amounts and may take longer for the victim to identify fraudulent activity.

In 2022 alone, US banks filed 680,000 check fraud-related suspicious activity reports (SARs). This represents a nearly two-fold increase from 2021 (which itself represents a 23 percent YoY increase from 2020). This surge in check fraud has been exacerbated by Covid-19 Economic Impact Payments (EIPs) under the CARES Act, which presented threat actors with a new avenue to attempt to commit fraud.

Check fraud: A mini use case 

In order to mitigate and ultimately prevent check-fraud-related risks, it’s crucial for financial intelligence and fraud teams to understand what threat actors seek, how they work, and where they operate. 

This begins, as we detail below, with intelligence into the communities, forums, and marketplaces where check fraud occurs as well as the tools that enable deep understandings, timely insights, and measurable action. 

Below is an intelligence narrative, in three acts, that tells the story of how transactions involving some of the above examples could play out.

Act I: Obtain

Threat actors are known to remove mail from individuals’ mailboxes and parcel lockers using blue box “arrow” master keys. These arrow keys are often stolen from USPS employees, which has led to numerous incidents of harassment, threats, and even violence. Generally, arrow keys are sold within illicit community chats and/or the deep and dark web, often fetching upwards of $3,000 per key.

In general, when it comes to check fraud, threat actors may sell or seek: 

• Mailbox keys
• Stolen checks
• Check alteration services (physical and digital)
• Synthetic identity provisioning
• Drop account sharing
• Counterfeit check creation
• Writing a check with insufficient funds behind it
• Insider access

Act II: Alter

Check alteration comes in two forms: “washing” and “cooking.” 

Washing refers to the process of altering a check by chemically removing ink and replacing the newly empty spaces with a different value, recipient name, or another fraud-enabling alteration. 

Cooking involves digitally scanning the check and altering text or values through digital means.

Act III: Monetize

Threat actors will deposit the fraudulent check and rapidly withdraw the funds from an ATM, or sell a stolen or altered check on an illicit marketplace or chat group, and then receive payment, often via cryptocurrency.

Four key elements of actionable check fraud intelligence

Financial institutions should rely on four essential intelligence-led technologies, tools, or capabilities to effectively combat check fraud.

1) Visibility and access to illicit communities and channels

To prevent check fraud, organizations should focus on a few key places. Financially motivated threat actors operate and share information on messaging apps like Telegram and other open-source channels, as well as illicit marketplaces on the deep and dark web. Therefore, it is imperative for financial intelligence and fraud teams to have access to the most relevant check fraud-related threats across the internet. 

Keep in mind, however, that accessing these communities is not always straightforward and, if done frivolously, can compromise an investigation.

2) Timeliness and curated alerting

Intelligence is often only as good as it is relevant. Flashpoint enables security and intelligence practitioners to bubble the most important, mission-critical intelligence through our real-time alerting capability, which allows users to receive notifications for keywords and phrases that relate to their mission, such as check fraud-related lingo and activity. 

In addition to real-time alerts, analysts can rely on curated alerting and saved searches to track topics of long-term interest. Flashpoint Ignite enables analysts to research particular accounts and their recent activity and matches transactions to their respective ATM slips and institution address. This helps to ensure the accuracy of the information found within these communities and marketplaces before raising any alarms, as many scammers post false content. 

This approach is particularly valuable as check fraudsters often share crucial information such as preferred methodologies, social media handles, and geolocations that can aid in identifying malicious activities. In addition, by closely observing newly emerging trends, such as the evolution of pandemic relief fraud to refund fraud to check fraud, analysts can proactively develop robust preventative measures to mitigate risks before these tactics become widespread.

3) Actionable OCR and Video Search

In order to provide “material proof,” cyber threat actors will often tout and post an image of a check in a chat application or marketplace in hopes of increasing the likelihood of a successful transaction. Optical Character Recognition (OCR) technology can capture important information about check fraud attempts, since actors often share images of the fraudulent check or subsequent monetization transactions. OCR alerts are customizable with the financial institution’s name and common phrases used on checks to enhance accuracy.

Images of fraudulent checks provide valuable insights into the fraud attempt, including the check’s unique identifier, the account holder’s name, the bank’s name and address, and the endorsement signature. By analyzing these details, financial institutions and law enforcement agencies can identify patterns and leads that can help them track down the perpetrators and prevent future fraudulent activity.

Moreover, ATM withdrawal slips can offer critical information about the transaction, such as the location of the ATM, the time of the deposit, and the type of account used. This data is useful when taking appropriate measures to prevent similar attempts and protect customers’ assets. With the help of advanced technologies like Flashpoint’s OCR, institutions can quickly extract and analyze this information to generate real-time alerts and take prompt action to prevent monetary losses.

An essential investigative component, Flashpoint’s industry-first video search technology, like its OCR capability, enables fraud and cyber threat intelligence (CTI) teams to surface logos, text, explicit content, and other critical intelligence to enhance investigations.

Combat check fraud with Flashpoint

Flashpoint delivers the intelligence that enables financial institutions to combat check fraud at scale. With timely, actionable, and accurate intelligence, financial institutions can mitigate and prevent financial loss, protect customer assets, and track down perpetrators. Get a free trial today to learn how:

• A financial services customer detected more than $4M in illicitly marketed assets, including checks and compromised accounts, using Flashpoint’s OCR capabilities. 

• A customer received 125 actionable alerts in a single month equated to over $15M in potentially averted losses.

• An automated alert enabled a customer to identify a threat actor’s specific operations, saving them over $5M.

Request a demo today.