The attacks targeted the US Department of Education and Library and Archives Canada, and researchers linked some agents to OpenAI.
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CVE-2026-104286 is a critical-severity path traversal vulnerability that could allow attackers to write arbitrary files to the system.
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Rob Juncker is chief product and technology officer at Mimecast. Is he a hacker? “Unequivocally yes,” he says.
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According to this year’s Microsoft Digital Defense Report, government agencies and services were the sector most impacted by cyber threats in 2026, accounting for 27% of observed activity, up from 17% in 2025. Governments are also the most frequently targeted sectors for nation-state activity. They are attractive targets because they hold sensitive information, operate essential services, and sit at the center of networks of agencies, contractors, technology providers, and critical infrastructure operators.
Dwell time, the period between when an attacker gains access and when defenders detect and stop them, also increased this year across multiple sectors. While organizations responded faster once an intrusion was identified, detecting threats early remains a challenge. Attackers increasingly gain access through techniques that mimic legitimate activity, making malicious behavior harder to spot. For example, phishing accounted for 23% of observed intrusions in 2026, up from 7% in 2025, highlighting the continued importance of compromised identities as an entry point for broader attacks.
Taken together, the implication for governments is clear. Security in the AI era is no longer simply about preventing individual intrusions. It is about ensuring institutions can operate effectively in an environment where risks are interconnected, threats move faster, and attackers remain hidden longer. Public-private partnerships are also more important than ever for securing critical government infrastructure and developing the policies and regulations needed for emerging technologies.
In this year’s report, which examines cyber threat trends observed between July 2025 and June 2026, Terrell Cox, Microsoft’s Corporate Vice President & Deputy Chief Information Security Officer, and I explore how these dynamics are reshaping cyber risk. In a companion blog, Terrell takes a closer look at what these findings mean for CISOs and security professionals.
AI is compressing the window for action. Adversaries are moving faster. A vulnerability’s discovery in the wild to active weaponization can be well below 24 hours. While the number of publicly disclosed software vulnerabilities (commonly tracked as CVEs) is projected to reach a record 72,000 in 2026.
Governments best prepared for the future will be those that can rapidly gather and assess information, make decisions, coordinate across institutions and industries, and communicate effectively during a crisis. This requires clearly defined responsibilities and trusted relationships established before an incident occurs, enabling swift and coordinated action when it matters most.
AI is becoming part of the infrastructure that governments, businesses, and citizens rely on every day. As governments continue to adopt AI across public services and encourage its broader use, they should approach its security as a resilience challenge rather than a narrow technical issue.
AI systems depend on interconnected infrastructure, data, models, applications, suppliers, and governance processes. Governments should promote security across this ecosystem through secure-by-design practices, testing and evaluation, stronger supply chain protections, transparency, accountability, and international cooperation on AI risk.
The goal is not to create a separate AI security agenda. It is to integrate AI security into broader efforts to protect critical infrastructure and build national resilience.
Governments may not immediately know whether an intrusion is criminal, geopolitical, or something else. Cybercriminals and nation-state actors pursue different objectives, but increasingly rely on many of the same entry points, including compromised identities, exposed applications, social engineering, and legitimate administrative tools.
Microsoft found that 52.2% of intrusions involving valid accounts resulted in additional credential theft, highlighting how quickly attackers can expand beyond an initial foothold. A seemingly isolated compromise can evolve into ransomware, espionage, data theft, or disruption of essential services.
Governments should therefore assess incidents not only by how they begin, but by where they could lead. Response plans should account for the suppliers, partners, and service providers supporting critical functions. As attacks expand beyond their initial targets, they can also cross organizational, sectoral, and national boundaries, reinforcing the need for global collaboration.
A compromised account at one organization may provide early warning of a broader campaign. Signals that appear inconclusive in isolation can reveal coordinated activity when combined across organizations and jurisdictions. Modern cybercrime operates through interconnected networks of actors, services, and infrastructure that no single institution can fully see or disrupt on its own.
Information sharing must be timely, trusted, and two-way—also known as bidirectional. The goal is not simply for companies to report threats to government. Public agencies should also return actionable intelligence, guidance, and warnings that help organizations protect their networks, customers, and operations. Trusted channels can enable this exchange among government agencies, law enforcement, critical infrastructure operators, technology providers, and international partners while respecting legal and privacy requirements.
Policymakers can support this cooperation through protections for good-faith information sharing, common anonymization standards, and investment in shared threat intelligence and detection capabilities. Information sharing should also lead to action, including investigations, disruption efforts, and accountability for those responsible for serious cyber intrusions.
The organizations governments depend on to deliver public services, including transportation systems, communications infrastructure, schools, universities, and critical infrastructure operators, are increasingly targeted by cyber threats. Resilience therefore requires understanding not only government systems, but the broader ecosystem that supports them.
Planning documents alone are not enough. Governments should regularly conduct tabletop exercises bringing together policymakers, operational leaders, law enforcement, critical infrastructure operators, and private-sector partners to test how they would respond to incidents disrupting essential services. These exercises can expose gaps in decision-making, information sharing, public communications, and cross-sector coordination before a real-world crisis. Microsoft’s work through initiatives such as the Advancing Regional Cybersecurity (ARC) program, most recently in Kenya, illustrates how scenario-based exercises and cross-sector collaboration can help strengthen preparedness and response capabilities across the broader ecosystem.
Government leaders should also know which services are most critical, which identities, systems, suppliers, and infrastructure support them, and how incidents will be escalated. Shared-service approaches can help extend security and response capabilities to local governments and public institutions that cannot build them independently.
As cyber incidents cross organizational and national boundaries, resilience depends not only on technical preparedness, but on whether institutions can coordinate effectively under pressure.
In an era of AI-enabled and increasingly interconnected cyber threats, resilience is no longer simply about recovering from an attack. It is about preparing for a world in which cyber incidents move faster, spread further, and affect more organizations than ever before. Governments best prepared for the future will be those that can contain harm, adapt quickly, and continue delivering critical services when citizens need them the most.
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Flashpoint was awarded U.S. Patent No. 12,705,360 for its Ransomware Risk model, which rates how closely new vulnerabilities match those used in ransomware attacks.
Table Of ContentsVulnerability and exposure management (VM) teams need critical metadata and context that clearly show which issues pose an immediate risk to their organization. While traditional VM frameworks tell defenders how severe a vulnerability may be, they do not provide visibility into how likely threat actors are to exploit it. This leaves security teams overwhelmed in patch backlogs without a clear strategy for prioritization.
Nowhere is this prioritization gap more dangerous than with ransomware. Ransomware-as-a-Service (RaaS) groups no longer choose targets at random. They look for specific technical conditions that make vulnerability exploitation easy, fast, and repeatable. With RaaS attacks rising by 45% period-over-period in H1 2026, organizations need a way to identify the specific traits that make a vulnerability attractive to ransomware operators before an attack occurs.
Flashpoint built the Ransomware Risk score into Flashpoint Vulnerability Intelligence to solve exactly this problem. Since 2022, it has rated newly discovered vulnerabilities based on how closely they resemble those known to be used in ransomware attacks. With the grant of the U.S. Patent No. 12,705,360 on August 11, 2026, the methodology behind the score is now formally patented. This milestone formalizes Flashpoint’s ability to cut through the noise with a proven, threat-informed signal that gives defenders the clarity they need to act on Day Zero.
“As vulnerability disclosures surge, prioritization is more important than ever for security teams. A severity score alone can’t tell you which vulnerabilities pose the greatest real-world risk of exploitation by ransomware actors.
Our patented Ransomware Risk model applies years of threat intelligence to that problem, giving customers an earlier signal and helping them prioritize based on how attackers actually operate.”
josh lefkowitz, co-founder and ceo at flashpoint
The patented system evaluates newly disclosed vulnerabilities against the patterns shared by vulnerabilities ransomware groups have exploited. Rather than trying to predict what threat actors will do next, the model learns what past ransomware-exploited vulnerabilities have in common and compares each new flaw against those patterns.
Every vulnerability ingested into Flashpoint Vulnerability Intelligence is profiled against more than 60 distinct technical factors. This “fingerprinting” links the vulnerability to key inputs including whether the flaw is remotely exploitable without authentication, whether it affects SCADA or Operational Technology (OT) systems, and its potential impact on data availability, which is central to extortion schemes.
The model turns each multi-factor fingerprint into a set of values that place it as a single point on a map, so vulnerabilities with similar profiles land close together.
Flashpoint overlays historical threat data onto the map to establish neighborhoods where vulnerabilities previously exploited in real-world ransomware attacks aggregate.
When a new vulnerability is ingested, its coordinates are checked against these neighborhoods. The scoring system calculates its spatial proximity to known ransomware vectors and assigns a clear rating: Low, Medium, High, or Critical.
This four-step method, developed by Flashpoint’s Ben Haynes and Jacob Kouns, is the basis of U.S. Patent No. 12,705,360.
By translating complex structural attributes into a single risk score, the patented model delivers four key operational advantages:
Flashpoint’s Ransomware Risk model is built to enhance, not replace the vulnerability management frameworks organizations already rely on. In fact, it provides even greater value for security teams as our Ransomware Risk model provides clarity for every vulnerability detailed by Flashpoint Vulnerability Intelligence, including over 105,000 issues missed by CVE and NVD.
Within Flashpoint Ignite, security teams have a complete view of vulnerability risk, seeing the score alongside CVSS (v3 and v4), EPSS, Social Risk, and exploit maturity.
Vulnerability management requires more than cataloging. It demands threat-informed prioritization that aligns security operations with real-world business risk. Flashpoint’s patented Ransomware Risk model eliminates guesswork by surfacing the flaws that match the profile of known ransomware targets, allowing security teams to patch what matters most, first.
By combining proprietary knowledge of vulnerability architecture and ransomware attacks, Flashpoint bridges the gap between theoretical and active exposure. Request a demo today to see how our Ransomware Risk model provides the definitive signal needed to stay ahead of extortion groups.
What is the Ransomware Risk score?
The Ransomware Risk score is a rating in Flashpoint Vulnerability Intelligence that shows how closely a vulnerability resembles those known to be used in ransomware attacks. Each vulnerability is rated Low, Medium, High, or Critical, so security teams can see which ones to patch first to reduce their ransomware exposure.
How is Ransomware Risk different from CVSS and EPSS?
CVSS measures how severe a vulnerability could be, and EPSS estimates how likely it is to be exploited in general. Ransomware Risk adds a ransomware-specific signal that works alongside both, showing how closely a vulnerability matches those ransomware groups have used. In Flashpoint Ignite, all three scores appear together.
What does Flashpoint’s ransomware patent cover?
U.S. Patent No. 12,705,360, granted August 11, 2026, covers Flashpoint’s method for rating how likely a vulnerability is to be used in a ransomware event. Each vulnerability is profiled on more than 60 factors, compared with vulnerabilities used in past ransomware attacks, and rated by similarity. The patent formalizes the model behind the Ransomware Risk score, live since 2022.
How often are Ransomware Risk scores updated?
Ransomware Risk scores update in near real time, so new vulnerabilities are rated as soon as they’re disclosed. The model also keeps adjusting as new vulnerabilities join the body it compares against, so ratings reflect the ransomware landscape as it stands today.
The post Ransomware Risk Model: Flashpoint’s Patented Scoring Method to Inform Vulnerability Prioritization appeared first on Flashpoint.
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